A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
